Where's Them Frikkin' Lazar Beams??

It's the evening of the 25th August, 2013.  Somewhere in the red heart of Lisboa, Benfica manager Jorge Jesus can't sit for fear that his nerves will betray his confidence. His nerves are gone. The jacket's off. No tie or fashion bulletin scarf around his neck. Even the gum's being chewed with long teeth. He's feeling the pressure of the white handkerchiefs threatening to reveal themselves past the pockets of the watching Benfiquista faithful.

It's 0-1 to Gil Vicente. At home. 7 days after a demoralising opening day defeat in Madeira to Maritimo.  And his principal creators Gaitan and Salvio, bereft of form, now reside behind him on an anxious Benfica bench. It was just 2 minutes later that Viana scored the opener.

80 minutes. 0-1.
85 minutes. 0-1.
90 minutes. 0-1. Still.

This wasn't supposed to happen.
They weren't supposed to have a horrid May where a treble went up in smoke at the hands of a presumptuous display in Estoril, and being cut at the knees against Porto, Chelsea and Guimaraes.
They definitely weren't supposed to start the new season like this. No big departures? Additions of intriguing talent like Filip Djuricic and Miralem Sulejmani? A stronger team, surely! Not one that loses at home to Gil Vicente??

92 minutes, Wait. What!? Number 50's just run on a glorious defence splitting pass into the box. And scored!?  An intelligent diagonal run vs. static centre backs, and a lovely finish with his right!
1 minute later, Benfica have won through another late goal, this time from main striker Lima. 2-1 win. Snatched from the jaws of defeat.

Jorge Jesus breathes. And this number 50 kid... who the hell is he?

At the time we didn't know. Well, ok, Very few did know.  Very few understood the background of one of Serbia's most exciting young technical prospects, already rumoured to have been scouted by Chelsea while at Partizan Belgrade.

But that changed a week later.

After all, that was no ordinary Sporting team. No. This was not the Sporting of old. It had purpose. A good coach with great ideas in Leonardo Jardim. And a trio of midfielders growing in stature in William Carvalho, Adrien Silva and Andre Martins.  They were great value for their 1-0 lead after 10 minutes, even if it was at home.

But wait. Did that Serbian kid just replace the first choice Benfica winger Salvio due to injury?  And did that same Serbian punk just breeze past the Sporting midfield and inbetween the left back and centre back to calmly slot past Patricio for a critical equaliser to ultimately frame him as a temporary cult derby hero?  The ball just stuck to his feet! What the hell??

Many didn't know his name before.
They did now.
Lazar Markovic.

Lazar produced some key moments in the big games against Porto and Sporting.
(Image source - https://www.facebook.com/SportLisboaBenfica/photos_stream)

AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH

It's the evening of the 25th August 2014. 60 minutes into what was supposed to be a close encounter between 2 title rivals from the previous season, the world has changed considerably for Lazar Markovic. He's already put the domestic treble and the disappointing Europa League final with Benfica behind him.  And the 7 goals he scored. And the assists he created, including a memorable one for Rodrigo against title rivals Porto.

Instead, this time he's replacing Philippe Coutinho, walking onto the pitch in Liverpool red, and facing an opponent the quality of which he's never faced. It's not his fault, of course. For all of their efforts, Benfica's most illustrious opponents in season 2013/14 were PSG and Juventus. Neither play in the gruelling physicality and tempo of the Premier League.

As a Benfica and Liverpool fan, I was asked (and still do get asked) several times about Lazar. His best qualities. His best position. His promise. And more recently - his price tag.

My answers have always been based on what I saw, of course. And call me biased, but there's not exactly a poor track record with certain players from Portuguese football, expensive as they normally are. His impact with Benfica had been fantastic. I had little reason to think he couldn't replicate it given time and opportunity.

After the cameo against Man City came Spurs. Then suddenly injuries to key players forced him into the spotlight against Villa, West Ham, Middlesborough, Everton and Basel.  It's not a great sample - but football is merciless to those who flatter to deceive.

And Markovic has done just that.

MONEY'S TOO TIGHT TO MENTION

The main contributing factor though - is not his fault at all. It's the precedent set in recent years in Portuguese football, where Porto and Benfica have managed to produce considerable transfer cash cows (even with the issues of third party ownership) through the sale of talent too great to contain on Portuguese shores like Angel Di Maria, Axel Witsel, Hulk, Joao Moutinho and Nemanja Matic.

But Markovic has a different challenge. Yes, he illustrated his talent in Portugal. And yes, before he even began think about taking in Portuguese customs, he was already considered a special talent while at Partizan Belgrade.

It was widely considered that Chelsea were going to be the main front-runners for his signature (truth be told, that may still be the case one day).  I was convinced of this. And I constantly iterated this time and time again. Just like Nemanja Matic before him, he was inevitably London bound.

But then - he wasn't.
20m reasons later, did I discover that Liverpool had acquired him. And with my two hats, I immediately posed the 2 sides of the coin.
For Benfica - an inevitable departure, perhaps a season earlier than expected, or hoped. The destination? Irrelevant. The full price was paid - and that's all that Luis Filipe Vieira wanted, of course.

But for Liverpool? 20m for a 20 year old?

It's no coincidence that people make the comparisons now between Lazar and Stewart Downing.  I'm awaiting the comparison with Andy Carroll, because in a strange way, that may well be the most appropriate.

Did Andy want to leave Newcastle? Likely not. Did they want the cash offered? Very much so.
Did Lazar farm himself out for sale? I doubt he cared either way. Did Benfica want the cash offered? You know the answer.

The price is the same noose hanging around the neck of any player who's development, skills and assimilation into a new league, team or challenge are perceived not to be in sync with their transfer fee.  It's the reason Liverpool fans doubted Jordan Henderson initially (well, actually, some still do).  It's the reason Aquilani's flop hurt that much more.  Or Carroll and Downing, for that matter.

THE BOY (WITH POTENTIAL) WHO LIVED

And of course, with the price and the failure to produce the initial reassuring signs of a good investment come the criticism. The doubt. The hate. The bestial remarks on instagram posts and Twitter comparing Lazar's abilities to that of a disabled primate (or something like that, anyway).

Yet... I struggle to recall many players with big price tags who didn't have a certain pedigree already developed behind them.  A price brings with it expectations and often, the best players dispel the nonsensical notions of "time needed to settle in" when their prices are considerably high. Mata for Chelsea or Man United. Bale to Real Madrid. Silva, or Aguero for Man City. Di Maria for Man United. Fabregas, or Costa, or even Matic for Chelsea.

That's not to say it always works like that, of course. Ozil didn't hit the ground running at Arsenal. Lamela may yet still flop completely at Spurs. Many Liverpool fans are now amenting Mario Balotelli, be it with pleas of patience or condemnation.  Adam Lallana's largest critics have a larger problem with his price tag than Adam's abilities to contribute to the team.

But a 20 year old? A kid? Because that IS what he is, of course.

There are comparisons to Sterling. And those comparisons aren't unfounded given that they are similar players in style and approach. But Sterling has a few things that Markovic doesn't have. Sterling has experience of the league, the academy, the manager's approach. The experience of team-mates around him. And most of all, the experience of having been on the fringes of the team for the sake of patience, development and above all, confidence.  A far cry from the calls suggesting to loan him after appearing as a right back in some of Rodgers' early tactical shifts in 2013-14.

Some of that may be irrelevant if you're in your mid 20s. But a kid?

Ironically, you could (theoretically) buy Sterling now for 20m and suggest that he not only represents great value for the future - but also a fantastic talent at the moment in his own right. The problem with this comparison is simple. Sterling has developed into a magnificent world class player at this tender age.  But Markovic hasn't been afforded that opportunity, and may not at Liverpool, because the price will always betray any performance he produces, be it good ("about time he justified his price!" or bad ("waste of money!").

The reality is this. Very seldom are large outlays of cash made for players this young.  It is becoming more common as teams become more determined to maximize the return on key young prospects, but there's a handful of teams that sell (or pay) top dollar for potential.  And even I'm not too hubristic to admit that Liverpool paid a premium for potential in his transfer.

THE NOT SO MAGNIFICENT XI

However, all that being said, I am effectively a Markovic apologist, so let me try my rhetoric to suggest a notion which, while not wholly satisfying to absolve the Serbian of his role in his poor start at Liverpool, does nonetheless pose a compelling argument to defend the lad (at least, I think so).

Lazar was a key ingredient in Benfica's league and domestic cup treble in 2013/14.
(Image source - https://www.facebook.com/SportLisboaBenfica/photos_stream)

At Benfica, his introduction into the team played to a lot of good factors. A team facing opponents of a lower overall quality, technical ability and physicality compared to Liverpool. A team that also finished 2nd in their respective competition, and ironically with even higher expectations set up on it, but a team with an established identity.  No loss of key players (Matic would only make his exit in January 2014 and by that point, the team already had a reasonable alternative to him in Ljubomir Fejsa).  No dramatic introduction of several new faces, including a near total overhaul of the back 4. In fact, the only initial change in that Benfica team other than Markovic himself was a new left back in Guilherme Siqueira.

Liverpool are in a significantly different place. They have a far more difficult league to navigate, married with the ludicrous expectations of some to challenge for large titles outright.  They have changed 3 of the back 4, retaining the only weak link in that setup (Skrtel). They've exacerbated the midfield issues with bizarre tactical applications that bind Henderson to Gerrard in a Hodgson-esque 2-man configuration which doesn't support the attack and clearly is still ineffective in protecting the defence.

Often Liverpool attack with isolation - 3 vs a swarm of defenders resting deep, in stark contrast to last season's quick attacking transitions and excellent off ball movement and rotation of the front 3, supported with 2 fullbacks and 2 central midfielders to allow ball retention, and management and creation of space.

It's Liverpool's previous season's attacking style that marries why I believe Liverpool bought Lazar, because Benfica operated very much in a similar manner, with the team's shape largely a fluid 343 in attack. And whether he played with mobile fowards like Rodrigo and Lima, or a more static big centre forward like Oscar Cardozo, Markovic didn't struggle to create or capitalise on space which he specifically needs to shine.

In short - Markovic hasn't been employed enough in the manner which plays to his strengths, and he's playing a role alien to him in a team that isn't functioning on any cylinders at times.  If people believe they've not seen anything of him to illustrate any promise or sign to justify his purchase, I would agree, albeit with a heavy heart.  If he's being reduced to taking down high diagonal balls from deep from Gerrard, and being expected to run to the corner flag, and put in a cross for the big man in the middle - most people who have seen him play will tell you he will always look worse than Stewart Downing if that's what his role is.

LAZAR QUEST

Lazar missed the Europa League final after being mistakenly assumed to have participated in a touchline brawl.
(Image source - https://www.facebook.com/SportLisboaBenfica/photos_stream)

Lazar is not a traditional winger.  He's a wide forward, whose instinct when receiving the ball in wide positions (or centrally, for that matter) with space is to see the pitch in front of him, run at speed at defenders, with good off-ball movement around him to drag defenders out of position.  That, combined with his excellent touches and technique (and a bit of audacity), tends to the produce the real magic and brilliance that set Benfiquista hearts alive last season.  It's that magic that made him a critical part of a team that lost a handful of times last season, conquering the domestic competitions threefold.  It stands to reason that had it not been for a bizarre suspension from a brawl in the semifinal against Juventus, he could have made the difference in a Benfica side strapped of many of its creative resources against Sevilla in the Europa League final.

That's why ironically, my condemnation of his poor start doesn't make allowance for some of the more positive and optimistic Liverpool fans who've said they've "noticed his pace", or said things like "he looked decent against City", and "made some nice touches".

The Markovic I know and expect hasn't arrived at Anfield.  I last saw him celebrating a third trophy win in Benfica red.

I also don't believe his poor form is due only to him - there are issues larger than him affecting the team at present. But fundamentally, I hope for his sake, he is afforded the time to develop, to integrate to shine. I believe Liverpool could have a very special talent if that is the case.

But if that doesn't happen...he may become someone else's diamond to polish. And he is a diamond, of that I have little doubt.

Is it Benfica’s Title to Lose?

A special note - this blog post is dedicated to the memory of the greatest ever Benfica player that ever lived and is likely to ever kick a ball in the famous red shirt. Descansa em paz, Rei.  Obrigado, Eusebio.

Permit me a bit of fiction.

It’s the week of the Clássico.  Benfica coach, Jorge Jesus, casts a contemplative glance at the Liga table at near mid-point in the current 2013-14 season.  All the big 3 on 33 points, separated mainly by the goals of Fredy Montero and Jackson Martinez.  All 3 unbeaten at home.  One has a new coach, extremely talented and somewhat liberated by the opportunity to use a talented crop of youngsters, ready to bloom into focus as they weave up new hopes in every Sportinguista in the planet.  The defending champions also have a new coach, brooding furiously over his tactical adjustments, slightly unsettled that a failure to qualify from a Champions League group, combined with lacking performances and a sobering league campaign have brought pressure that he could have only dreamed of in his previous life at Paços de Ferreira.

Jorge Jesus ponders on the 3^rd team in that trio – they are his responsibility. A team likely still recovering from 3 of the biggest gut wrenching punches a football team could ever experience.  3 trophies up in smoke in the matter of 3 weeks.  A magnificent season’s performance undermined by bad luck, bad tactics, bad form and Hungarian curses.  He casts his mind back to previous title races, like that of 2006-07, where Benfica ended 3^rd, 2 points behind Porto with Sporting sandwiched in-between. Or that of 2004-05, where “boring” Trapattoni’s Benfica topped their table a mere 4 points ahead of Sporting in 3^rd.

Unlike Fonseca at Porto or Jardim at Sporting, Jorge Jesus doesn’t have the “new coach forgiveness” card, (mind you, it’s debatable if Fonseca has one too).  Jorge Jesus didn’t lose the players he anticipated to lose, nor did he lack money and spending to bring in additional talent to empower a stronger squad for a title challenge (even if some of those transfers made little sense).

Jorge Jesus faces a tricky race for this season's Liga title.
(Image source - https://www.facebook.com/SportLisboaBenfica/photos_stream)

Jorge Jesus contemplates the Liga table again. The Clássico looms. The Benfiquista crowd packs the Luz to capacity.  Their singing and passion engulf the stadium.  The old man knows.

This could be close.

The 2013-14 Liga Title Race

It’s the first time since 2007 that the traditional big 3 of Benfica, Sporting and Porto seem destined for a meaningful title race.  The teams resume their Liga fixtures this weekend with the entire top 4 in action against each other. High flyers Estoril host Sporting, while the first Clássico of the new season takes place at the Luz.

It’s not hard to see why the Clássico typically takes on such significance. Last season’s Clássico at the Dragão provided a sequence of title drama that Hollywood could never script or execute better than the real life tears of despair felt by a nation of Eagles fans, sharing in the defeated image of an old man on his knees seconds after Kelvin’s winning goal.

Yet, even though the 3 sides are locked on 33 points, each team has such a different story to tell.  Those stories already provide clues as to who could be crowned champions in May.

Sporting are a rejuvenated team this season.
(Image source - https://www.facebook.com/SportLisboaBenfica/photos_stream)

Sporting’s academy romance

After some lean years, Sporting’s resurgence looks impressive this season. There’s obvious affection for a team with young starlets, many of them expected to represent the future of the national team.  Strategically, the team has gone back to its – literally – academic roots, with academy graduates like William Carvalho, Adrien Silva and André Martins all playing a part in the most cohesive team in the Liga this season.

The key, however, remains the level headed tactical approach of new coach Leonardo Jardim.  Jardim’s setup maximizes the potential of the 3 man midfield configuration of Carvalho, Silva and Martins to dominate possession and create plenty of chances for current top scorer Fredy Montero, while rotating extensively between wing-forwards Diego Capel, André Carillo and Wilson Eduardo.  The results illustrate the effect – they’re top scorers in the Liga, and they’ve scored 3+ goals in 5 games, including a massive 5-1 win over Arouca.

Sporting are also leveraging some obvious advantages that they have over their two more celebrated rivals; the lean years have meant that Jardim is operating under significantly less pressure compared to Jesus (Benfica) and Fonseca (Porto). Sporting have not needed to spread their relatively thin squad over an additional 6 Champions League games.  And admittedly, Jardim has the other benefit of inheriting a group of academy players who are familiar with one another, as opposed to one or two starlets to integrate into the team.

Sporting’s squad is short on depth though.  Striker Slimani looks several levels below cover / additional support for Montero.  The midfield trio is hardly supported by equal talent levels beneath them, and this includes former team captain Rinaudo.

The celebrated midfield trio also can be light on physicality, which showed extensively in Porto’s 3-1 win over Sporting, and to a lesser extent in Benfica’s 4-3 win in the Taça de Portugal.

In defence, Jefferson, Maurício and Marcos Rojo, while solid, are hardly a patch on the superior defensive individual talents at both Benfica and Porto.  If not for Jardim’s tactical approach that permits the opportunity for Sporting to dominate the ball, more teams would have already taken advantage of this.

Porto are still in the race, but have been unconvincing.
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Porto’s consistent…inconsistency?

Ironically not dissimilar to the much lamented Vitor Pereira, something doesn’t seem completely right with the defending champions and their new coach Paulo Fonseca.  The former Paços coach’s squad and tactical tinkering hasn’t seemed to deliver the same effect, even though, save for the disappointment of a Champions League group stage exit, the team is still producing the majority of the results one would expect. 

But the vulnerabilities are potentially extensive when compared to the robust approach under Pereira. The difference largely seems to be a distinct lack of defensive shape, especially when the team is in defensive transition, a problem which most Benquistas would recognize fairly well under their current coach, given they suffer from similar issues.

That’s not to say that Porto is not defensively solid. At times, Fernando Reges has done substantial credit to his nickname (“Octopus”) by covering for the lacking positional sense of his teammates, especially Defour, who has been one of a couple of poor performers. In Danilo, Alex Sandro and Mangala, Porto have 3 of the most technically astute, and skilled defenders in the Liga, all catching the eye of suitors outside of Portugal.

As for the frontline, what Varela, Licá, Josué and Quintero lack in absolute quality and consistency, Lucho makes up for in experience and Jackson makes up for in raw ability.  There is little doubt though that they miss the influence of João Moutinho through the middle though.  His influence as a central foil for buildup play combined with his strong pressing in the opponent’s half is unmatched, and hasn’t been replaced, either through a signing or tactically.

It’s these issues that ultimately have made Fonseca’s reign at Porto circumspect. His tactical tinkering have already seemed to calm in the past few fixtures since the fallout of the Champions League exit (no surprise they’ve been unbeaten since) but they still appear a shade of their former selves.  With the shadow of André Villas Boas lurking over the club since his sacking at Tottenham, Fonseca could be forgiven for being somewhat apprehensive about his team’s prospects.

Benfica – creating new shades of ambivalence

Sure, Sporting are flying high and Porto have a title to defend, but the majority of the pressure and expectation rests squarely on the shoulders of everyone wearing red in the Estádio da Luz.  There are many reasons for this, not least the fact that the club strengthened over the summer, retained all their key players (including some they didn’t expect) and – above all – retained the services of Jorge Jesus as coach.

Football theorists and pundits often lament a lack of continuity as one of the key reasons why it takes time for teams to create and sustain long term success, so one can understand why Benfica harbor such expectation. Yet much of it is misplaced. The team’s playing dynamics have been very poor this season.  Too many games seem to have been decided by the wizardry of individuals coming up with their own moments of magic, as opposed to a consistent, coached and strategised plan of action on the pitch. Games like the 2-1 win at Gil Vicente. Or the equalizer away at Sporting. Some Benfiquistas feel like they’re watching the same game every week with different shades of individual escape artistry.

Yet, it’s clearly obvious that Benfica easily have the most talented and deepest squad in the country. Only Rui Patrício, Jackson Martinez, Fredy Montero, Danilo and Fernando Reges can claim to be superior players in their respective positions. Otherwise, Benfica’s first choice defensive unit, for all its tactical issues is superb, with great depth in players like Silvio and André Almeida. Jorge Jesus has stumbled on a happy accident in applying Rúben Amorim in a 3 man midfield alongside the superb workhorse Enzo Pérez and the growing superstar Nemanja Matic. Going forward, no-one else can boast a forward line deeper and more talented as a group than Markovic, Gaitán, Salvio, Sulejmani, Ola John, Djuricic and Cavaleiro. Lima, Cardozo and Rodrigo may not be the equal of Jackson or Montero, but they’ve scored the goals regardless.  And conversely, Benfica have 3 effective striker options, as opposed to one superstar and no depth.

Despite all this, one can’t help but watch Benfica and think they’re playing like they’re trying to move through several gears at once – no cohesion, no proper plan. Sometimes it comes together beautifully in performance, like Gil Vicente (5-0 in the Taca), or Olympiakos (0-1 defeat in the Champions League); most of the time, it’s been perceived as scrappy and lucky.

The “Três Grandes” by the Numbers

For all these intrinsic differences between the fundamental squad talent and tactical application of talent across the 3 teams, their Liga campaigns thus far already give some intriguing clues into where they may end up.  Using the current Liga table as a barometer of how teams will rank at the end of the season, here’s an idea of where Benfica, Porto and Sporting have earned their points this season:

Some immediate intriguing observations come out. Naturally, with the Benfica – Porto Clássico to come, the title challenger table is somewhat thin to make a meaningful comparison, although Sporting’s sole defeat of the season thus far came against Porto – make of that what you will.

The other 3 “groups” are extremely intriguing.  Benfica are perfect against the sides competing for the European places in the table, and their record includes away wins at the superbly coached Estoril and Vitória Guimarães.  Porto’s return could worsen since they still need to travel to Guimarães, Nacional and Braga.  Sporting’s return should improve against these sides, given that they still need to host Estoril, Guimarães and Braga at the Alvalade.

Against the midtable sides, the big 3 are practically neck and neck, with Benfica and Porto only having dropped points due to defeats away at Marítimo and Académica respectively.  What’s interesting here is that Benfica have only played 1 of their 5 games against these sides at home – Marítimo, Rio Ave, Setúbal and Académica all visit the Luz in the second half of the season; a critical advantage on Sporting and Porto.

It’s the relegation battler group that makes for the most confusing reading.  Benfica bizarrely dropped points against Belenenses and Arouca, at home no less, while the other 2 made the most of their games against the weakest sides in the league, especially Sporting with 14 goals in their 4 matches against the bottom 4.  Porto’s schedule is the most favourable in the remaining games against these sides, as they still get to host Belenenses, Arouca and Paços, while Sporting and Benfica have to do some travelling.  That may not be a bad thing though, as one would expect the relegation battling sides to play more expansively at home in the hope of points, allowing the excellent counter attacking qualities of both Lisbon clubs to profit from this.

Is there an obvious winner to Liga 2013-14?

As the Clássico approaches, Jorge Jesus’ record comes into further scrutiny.  The facts speak for themselves; Benfica have failed to win a Liga Clássico since the solitary 1-0 in Jorge Jesus very first game against the old enemy in 2009. In some ways, the Clássico is prophetic.  With the exception of Jorge Jesus’ first season with Benfica, where both sides enjoyed Clássico victories on their home grounds, every season since has seen a share of the points in one match and a win for the resulting league winner in the other.  Last season’s dramatic fixture was THE title decider to replace all title deciders in recent memory.

But this season is different.  It’s a close 3 horse race.  And intriguingly, history tells us that in 5 of the last 7 seasons, teams with 10 wins or more by the start of the new year tend to win the league. This year 3 teams have the same number of wins!

While Sporting have been in excellent form, and Porto inconsistent, I firmly believe IF they can get their act together, it is without doubt Benfica’s title to lose.  The season’s 2^nd half schedule is favourable to Benfica.  Their squad is deeper, and it looks likely that their key players (especially Matic) may not leave in January due to interested clubs possibly not having enough appetite to pay the large sums of money demanded mid-season for transfers. Porto in particular are at risk of losing Fernando Reges in January for a tidy sum or risk losing him for free in the summer upon contract expiry. 

Benfica’s good performances can be counted on one hand. They’ve got more gears to find.  And for all their luck and poor form, they’ve still managed to accumulate an unbeaten run in domestic football since their opening day defeat to Maritimo, the longest run of its kind in the current Liga season at present.  Benfica have also taken 16 of 18 available points in their last 6 matches, vs. 11 of 18 for Porto, so the form book suggests good things for Benfica. This game is winnable.  Very winnable.

Will the eagle finally rest upon a Liga trophy this season?
(Image source - https://www.facebook.com/SportLisboaBenfica/photos_stream)

 Jorge Jesus contemplates the Liga table once more. The Clássico is nearly upon us. The Luz shakes from the beating of Benfiquista hearts so violent in their impatient chests.  The pitch awaits, poised to receive the 22 gladiators waiting to do battle. 

The old man knows.  This will be close.  But it’s his to lose.

Could the trip to Olympiakos be Benfica's most critical game of the season?

As the final whistle blew to end Wednesday night’s “swimming” encounter between the Greek league champions and the Eagles, it was difficult to look past the deluge of water on the Luz pitch and contemplate the significance of the 1-1 draw.  In understanding most football matches, perspective is symbiotic to statistics and cold hard facts, and this was no different.  Olympiakos were a weaker team (on paper, at least), choosing to bench a couple of critical players (Saviola, ironically formerly of Benfica), playing away from home.  Benfica fielded a strong side despite the injuries to recent potential quality signings Markovic and Fejsa.  The consequence of the draw is that both teams sit on 4 points, separated by mere goal difference, in the Greek side’s favour.  In 2 weeks, Benfica travel to Greece. 

Those 90 minutes in the Southern European nation could be the most important of Benfica’s season.

Jorge Jesus: On borrowed time?

Jorge Jesus has looked under significantly more pressure this season.
(Image source - https://www.facebook.com/SportLisboaBenfica/photos_stream)

I’m getting ahead of myself – let’s take a step back.  It’s not been a pleasant start for Benfica.  I’ve already lamented the concerns raised by their pre-season in a previous piece, yet there were many reasons to be optimistic, particularly in relation to transfers.  After the club signed Siqueira and Fejsa, the Eagles effectively ended the summer transfer window in a relatively unusual situation. No key players departed. The squad genuinely strengthened and substantially deeper in most positions. Siqueira’s signing was one of far more quality, one that turns left back in a potential strength for the first time since Fabio Ceontrão graced the Luz.  Fejsa, Markovic, Djuricic in particular all offer tactical depth and variety that is meaningful and potent. The talents of Matic, Pérez, Garay, Gaitàn and Salvio were all retained, despite some of them being heavily linked with moves away.

But from the word go, something has just looked wrong with Benfica this season.  Alfredo from the excellent TalkingToDaDoll podcast summed it nicely in a recent edition of the podcast – it’s as if the nightmarish end to last season has been seamlessly continued into this season and the damaging defeats in May are still heavy in the minds of the players.  Jorge Jesus isn’t his usual bombastic self – he’s appeared lost on the touchline, almost searching the pitch for ideas to change fortunes on it.  The team looks disjointed mentally.  Their work rates are inconsistent, only reserved for those inevitable moments of panic when the team falls behind.  Every win has had its own subtext to give Benfiquistas concern – Gil Vicente, Pacos were defensively poor and made it too easy.  Anderlecht were substantially weaker.  Guimarães and Estoril were both wasteful and unlucky not to claim a draw.

True, teams that win championships sometimes win playing poorly and are successful precisely because they grind out results when they’re needed regardless of whether they are deserved or not.  But a fair number of Benfiquistas are starting to question when the team is going to find the impressive form that drove much of the promise held last season.

And in the centre of it is the man with the flaming silver hair, who hasn’t managed to get it right.  He seems oblivious to his best formation, his best squad.  He has immense talents at his disposal, yet hasn’t been able to get the best out of most of them, the only exception arguably being Enzo Pérez.  The charismatic press conferences, the confident persona seems lost; one almost gets the impression Jorge Jesus is trying to convince himself as much as his players and the fans.

Contrasting the value of the Champions League and the Europa League

Benfica's participation in the Champions League is crucial for the club's revenues.
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Naturally, there are many routes to solving these problems, and for many fans, the decision to change the manager is considered both extreme and decisive.  Some will argue Jesus deserves the time, but he doesn’t have circumstances on his side.  Porto, Sporting and Braga have all changed managers.  All 3 still possess – arguably – weaker 1^st choice XI’s than Benfica when all players are available.  All 3 have less depth in their squads.  They do have their obvious stand-out superstars, but it’s clear that the expectation and pressure sits with Jorge Jesus, given these circumstances alongside Benfica’s summer spending and retention of key players.

These expectations have been somewhat defined and amplified by the club’s European adventures.

Benfica’s (and Portugal’s) European footprint has significantly been improved in recent years.  Consistent appearances in Europe haven’t hurt the Eagles by any measure, and they’ve been somewhat unlucky to lose in recent seasons to the eventual winners of the Champions League in 2012 and Europa League in 2013.  Last season’s Europa League final brought a romance not felt by Benfica and the club’s fans for over 20 years, and even though defeat was hard to swallow, it wasn’t contextually deemed a failure by many.

However, as with many things, the heart sometimes gets the better of the head, and this is a prime example.

Last season’s Europa League performance earned Benfica a total of €5,7 million in distributions from UEFA.  It’s a figure that’s slightly understated, given that the club would have also earned gate receipts money from the 4 matches in the knockout rounds.

But in comparison to the Champions League – it’s almost laughably inferior.  Benfica’s EXIT from the group stage in the 2012/13 edition earned the club €13,8 million.  This despite a massive missed opportunity due to finishing 3^rd behind Celtic and Barcelona.

Benfiquistas may choose to laugh with irony at Porto’s exit from the Champions League last season at the round of 16, but that entire campaign was worth €19,7 million – MORE than the combined figure that was earned by the Lisbon club in their adventures in both of Europe’s club competitions.

For the 2013/14 season, UEFA has confirmed that Group Stage participants will collect at the very least a fee of €8,6 million.  With 1 win and 1 draw, Benfica could lose their remaining matches (let's hope not!) and still, in theory, earn €10,1 million from their Group[ Stage campaign.  If the Eagles make it past their group, even a round of 16 exit will earn the club an additional €3,5 million.  This EXCLUDES the market pool, additional funds distributed based on the value of the TV market in each country (to give an idea, this was worth €2,2 million of Benfica’s €13,8 million earned in the Champions League last season).

For a club like Benfica – this is important money.  Not just to keep the club afloat.  But also to pay for significant transfers.  To retain key players who command the higher wages in the club.  Players who often are critical not just to competing in Europe, but getting you there in the first place.

A European exit increases the risk of domestic collapse

Benfica's failure to win in Lisbon could have far-reaching implications.
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Even in a situation where Benfica finish 3^rd in their Champions League group and parachute to the Europa League, it’s hardly lucrative.  Excluding the market pool distributions, if the Eagles drop again to the 2^nd tier competition, even if they repeat the feat and finish as finalists, the earnings would be a mere €4,5 million.

Benfica’s exploits in last year’s Europa League competition haven’t gone missed either.  A number of clubs across Europe are watching the club’s players, and a Champions League exit could play horridly into the hands of opportunistic clubs seeking to poach key players.  Benfica have become famous more recently for having huge release clauses, but financial strains could cause the club to becoming willing to consider lower offers for players like Matic, Pérez, Garay, Gaitàn and Salvio.  Predictably, it’s never the players you’d be happy to see the back of that often get linked with moves elsewhere.  And someone like Matic, as an example, already has the admiration of former club Chelsea and Liverpool.  Chelsea are likely to be able to offer the Serbian guaranteed Champions League football next season, while Liverpool are hopeful of their chances and could certainly afford to offer higher wages than Benfica.

Losing players like this, especially in the winter window, suddenly puts an already pressured domestic campaign into sharp perspective.  Benfica have grinded some results out largely by some good fortune, but the “<insert player name> get-us-out-of-jail-free" cards are likely going to run out sooner than later.  It looks unlikely Benfica would not be able to sustainably survive key player departures halfway through a season.  Last season’s departures of Javi Garcia and Witsel were miraculously solved by the emergence of Matic and Pérez, but there don’t seem to be the players waiting in the wings this time to step up and play at the required level should those players leave.  And those players would almost certainly be tempted by the advances of other richer admirers.

It’s not difficult to quantify the slippery slope after that.  A Champions League exit could lead to the very transfers Benfica feared during the summer window.  Those departures would all but expose the Eagles’ current flaw– if the best squad in the league (theirs) already sits 5 points adrift after nearly a quarter of the season, there isn't much hope for the progress of a weakened squad.  And with Porto being annoyingly consistent and Leonardo Jardim doing a substantially better job with Sporting, there’s a clear challenge for Benfica in reaching the all important automatic Champions League qualification spot that 2^nd place in the Liga offers.  It will also be harder to attract quality replacements without the promise or likelihood of football in Europe’s elite competition.

Avoiding the Greek tragedy

Olympiakos deserved their point in Lisbon.
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Which brings us to Olympiakos.  Benfica’s trip to Greece could be season defining.  Even a draw in the match ultimately hurts Benfica’s chances of progression.  Olympiakos were good value for their 1-1 halftime score against PSG, and they have the benefit of a home game against Anderlecht in the final group game.  The situation is unfortunately reminiscent of last season’s campaign, where despite back to back wins at home to Celtic and Spartak, Benfica went into the final game away at the Nou Camp needing a heroic win to progress – which wasn’t forthcoming.

The only way this ends positively for Benfica is to protect both the points and the head to head record by winning in Greece, and then in Belgium.  It’s a fair expectation that PSG will win their next 2 matches as well.  That would ultimately paint a situation of PSG topping the group on 15 points, followed by Benfica on 10, and Olympiakos on 4, effectively making the final fixture between Benfica and PSG irrelevant.  Even if Olympiakos produce a miracle to beat PSG, a 3 point lead and the advantage in the head to head record would keep the Eagles in pole position.

If Benfica draw or lose to the Greek side, it immediately complicates the equation.  Suddenly a win against PSG is the only guaranteed way to ensure qualification, unless Benfica pulls ahead on goal difference with a massive win in Belgium.  Benfica need to be playing their best to beat the team from France… and that unfortunately looks unlikely at this point.

An exit from the Champions League may spell the end of Jorge Jesus’ reign – but it could hurt the club in the mid-term as well.  So regardless of who is manager, be it Jorge Jesus, or any appointed caretaker or permanent manager should the club choose to ultimately wave the white handkerchief – it's a must win game against Olympiakos, due to its season defining consequences.  Financially, and for the retention and attraction of quality players.

Granted, all the above comes with that typical disclaimer of theory.  The club may still somehow survive another early Champions League exit with all their key players intact, even if it is coupled with a poor domestic campaign.  However, like many Benfiquistas, I’ve gotten used to the idea of Benfica in the Champions League.  Benfica is an elite club in their home territory – they should remain in Europe’s elite contest.

If they don’t – new manager or not – the damage could be seriously hard to repair.

Is Fejsa the missing piece of the Benfica puzzle?

Ljubomir Fejsa in his first full start for Benfica against Anderlecht
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Transfers are an odd thing.  Spend a huge amount of money on a player and expectation tracks them like a spotlight on a stage.  Spend a small amount – and sometimes getting fans to notice you at all is half the charm.

This past week, Benfica played Anderlecht in their first group stage match of this season’s Champions League campaign.  The lineup, deeply affected by the injuries to first choice players Nico Gaitán and Eduardo Salvio, was adapted accordingly to allow for the presence of new signings Markovic and Djuricic, but one name in particular was new to the starting lineup.  Benfica’s new defensive midfielder, Serbian Ljubomir Fejsa made his 2^nd appearance for the club since signing from Olympiacos in the summer. 

After the match, the unassuming Serbian was arguably Benfica’s most important player on the pitch.  Fejsa’s performance wasn’t spectacular, but was (crucially) tactically valuable… and it gave some indications that by luck or plan, Benfica may have very quietly signed a very important piece of their title-challenging puzzle.

First Impressions

Last season provided several examples of Benfica’s vulnerability on the counter attack, and much of it resulted from a lack of defensive cover offered by the shape of the team.  Nemanja Matic, a natural central midfielder (as opposed to a defensive midfielder) was often asked to play both protector of the back 2 as well as a key part of the build up play into the opposition area, and this often left the Serbian with too much ground to cover to defend against counter attacks.  Benfica’s vulnerable high defensive line would often leave gaps not only in behind Luisão and Garay, but also down the flanks (highlighted in yellow circles) due to the attacking endeavours of Maxi and Melgarejo.

The introduction of a proper defensive midfielder, however, immediately changes things for Benfica.  Fejsa showed tactical discipline against Anderlecht to ensure he protected the channel (as highlighted by the movement arrows and the yellow rectangle) in front of the centre back line.  He didn’t do it alone, obviously – Matic also played this role on the left of centre.  The team’s general shape against Anderlecht did illustrate however, the value Fejsa adds in offering proper protection against counter attacks and the attacking movements of the fullbacks.  The team’s shape ultimately ended up more of a 4231 – with the double pivot of Fejsa and Matic working well to offer defensive cover and attacking support.

Fejsa vs. Anderlecht

The question is of course, whether or not the tactical theory was proven by the actual performance of the team and Fejsa’s contribution to the game against Anderlecht.  Benfica lined up against the Belgian side in a loose 433 formation, with Fejsa largely staying just right of centre throughout the match in the middle of the pitch for most of the match.  While Fejsa wasn’t directly instrumental in the 2 goals scored by Djuricic and Luisão, his impact on the game defensively was obvious.

Fejsa’s defensive contribution was crucial to the Eagles, recovering the ball 6 times (out of 37).  The Serbian also contributed a quarter of the team’s interceptions (4) and tackles (7), including 2 crucially in the box.  Much of his defensive activity was down the right, to compensate for the movement of André Almeida and Enzo Pérez into forward positions to join the attack, or to assist Almeida with Anderlecht attacks down the flank.  Consider that in the absence of a Fejsa, one (or both) of 2 scenarios is likely – more successful counter attacks against exposed centre-backs, and / or an overworked Matic would have needed to make up the ground to cover the gaps.

Instead, Fejsa offered greater protection and the tactical discipline to make sure he protected the space in behind whoever was attacking down the right, minimizing the all too familiar risk of Benfica being caught on the counter attack.

That’s not to suggest Fejsa concentrated his positioning only in the central / right midfield.  He was responsible for a tenth of Benfica’s passes on the night (31 out of 317) and he managed to vary his positioning wherever the play required him to be.

What is also interesting about his passing are the recipients.  Fejsa’s passing distribution implied a comfort with allowing play to build up from the back via the flanks, something which Benfica needs to be doing more of (particularly in terms of controlling games with possession).  The most frequent recipient of Fejsa’s passes was Siqueira (6), while Luisão, Matic, Almeida, Ola John and Markovic all received 2 passes each.

The effect Fejsa’s presence had on Nemanja Matic was pivotal.  There’s a school of thought that Benfica’s best player of last season shouldn’t be playing as the defensive midfielder and his passing talents in particular would be better employed in the build-up towards goal further up the pitch.  The passing chart suggests that Matic still operated in a box to box manner, but for once, he didn’t have to operate across the entire pitch. He was able to cover more effectively for Siqueira’s moves down the left flank and link up more often in the attacking 3^rd, as can be seen by his passing distribution.

Matic also spent more time providing the attacking play, with passes to Siqueira (10), Markovic (6), Djuricic and Ola John (5 each). 

Tactical Conclusions

Granted, one shouldn’t read too much into the Anderlecht match.  It’s one fixture, against a weaker side.  However, there’s certainly a case for Fejsa offering Benfica a whole new set of options in tactical versatility.  The most important aspect he offers is the ability to protect the centre back line more effectively, but there are many other benefits as well.  Matic and Enzo can now push forward with less concern of the protection needed behind them.  Given their ability to press, it gives Benfica further opportunity to regain possession closer to the opponent’s goal, offering additional advantages for Benfica to dominate games.

It also offers a proper double pivot in midfield.  The merits of a proper 3 man midfield have also been debated by several Benfiquistas, especially given Porto’s successful application of such a system in recent years.  Last season’s loss of Javi Garcia and Axel Witsel limited Benfica’s options in being able to leverage players in a 3 man midfield. Now, not only does Fejsa give that opportunity, but Benfica can use a proper double pivot to good effect in the manner that both Fejsa and Matic went about their business against Anderlecht.

Probably the most enticing aspect of Fejsa’s inclusion is the fact that he brings stability to the midfield to the extent that it offers the freedom to experiment, without fear of unbalancing the team’s defensive shape, with the configuration in the attacking 3^rd.  Benfica could easily line up in a 433, 4231, or 442 Diamond formation and rotate the talents of Markovic and Djuricic especially, while still maintaining a core midfield duo of Fejsa and Matic.

Benfica's collective display was much better against the Belgian side
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So in conclusion – a good start to Fejsa’s Benfica career, and some genuine reason to be positive about the contribution he could make to the team’s success.  Here’s hoping the master-stroke that brought the Serbian to the club is leveraged properly by Jorge Jesus… because if it is, Benfica may no longer be just a collective of talented individuals.  They may also end up with a midfield that not only rivals Porto – but surpasses them.

Get that right and Benfica may just yet become the cohesive unit - the true team - that they have the potential to be.