Liverpool’s Squad & Transfer Strategy For 2012-13

Rodgers was officially announced as new Liverpool boss on the 1st June 2012

And suddenly, just like that, the business end really starts.  Like it or not, Liverpool fans would do well to get behind the new manager Brendan Rodgers, and any other senior staff on the way.  Some may have complained that it took too long to appoint him.  Yet had FSG been quicker, the conspiracy theorists would have complained about alleged behind-the-scenes pre-emptive discussions between FSG and their new appointment while Kenny was still in charge.  Many would have been distressed at how disrespectful that was – even though that was likely done to Houllier (and probably to Hodgson).

Of course there will be those who differ in opinion – and some will treat Rodgers with the same indifference afforded to Hodgson, and others will show him affection in hope of the promise of a big future.  Either way, his success depends on a few things, not least of which Liverpool’s existing squad, any transfers in / out, and the support FSG give him in all respects.

I can’t speak for the third item on that list.  Even though FSG have been in charge for over 18 months, it feels like a nervous courtship all over again.  But all the right messages seem to have been communicated in the process of announcing Rodgers as manager, so I assume he’s got the full (or close to it) support of the men from Boston.

Tactical options with Rodgers, of course, are interesting.  Observations of Swansea suggest a very quick pressing game, heavy emphasis on transitions, keeping the ball and making opponents chase you, and potentially more penetrative, possibly even likely to create better goalscoring chances…?

Some of his statements already imply that he sees opportunities (necessities, more likely!) to improve the squad in certain positions.  Swansea’s brand of football was a joy to watch the past season, and Rodgers’ chosen tactics could bring out the best in players like Reina, Agger, Lucas, Johnson, Enrique, Suarez, based on positional play.  It will take time for the others in the squad to adopt the style successfully, although I would imagine the more “direct” style players may be good for tactical variation. 

However, there are some key issues that Rodgers will have to address, as far as the squad’s composition, balance and application is concerned. 

For starters, I really would like to see Rodgers rotating the squad to create options and experience.  The League Cup and Europa League ideally need to be used as grounding points this season to give squad players more game time and experience.  Too many players last season got too little consistent game time, and that affects their impact when being forced into the squad.

We also need to be realistic about several aspects of the squad strategy for next season.  It’s doubtful after the frivolous spending of last season that FSG will allow similar spending levels for this summer.  Liverpool’s wage bill was the 4^th highest in the league last season, meaning FSG will want to trim it down where it makes sense.  And any Liverpool fan who expects the summer to pass without incident as far as one of our star players leaving may be too hopeful.  I’m being pessimistic, but I think we could experience at least one high profile departure – with Reina, Agger, Skrtel and Suarez being the players most at risk.

Then of course, there is the suggestion that Rodgers could be ruthless, and prepared to cut losses by selling players to bring in more suitable players.  Bold, but again, if backed by FSG…

So with that in mind, time to look at some thoughts on the squad strategy for next season, which ideally will occur sooner rather than later to the new man in charge…

Goalkeepers

It’s very rare that a team needs to use their 3^rd and 4^th choice keeper in a squad.  One hopes the incidents leading up to the FA Cup semi-final against Everton don’t repeat themselves, but ultimately they highlighted some issues.  Brad Jones’ attitude is great, but I really think he needs more time between the sticks in match situations – and hence would be my favourite to loan out, with option of a recall in emergencies. 

Reina has been poor – his shot stopping seems to have become non-existent, and instead of buying us undeserved points (like he did so often in 2010-11), he cost us a few times this past season.  He needs competition desperately; there must be consequences for poor performance.  Doni looks a useful stopper, and it would be great to see him play more often. 

Saves like these were in short supply last season from Pepe

Rodgers’ chosen tactical approach ironically would leverage Reina’s bravery on the ball – and Reina is capable of the odd assist every now and then – so one hopes Pepe sees this as an opportunity. No transfers expected here – although if Reina insisted on leaving, then it’s an option to sell him but for enough funds to bring in a younger replacement of the same class.

Full Backs

This is a key position for Liverpool – particularly since much of the build-up play starts out wide from the back.  The good news is, Rodgers’ tactical approach may take advantage of some available talent.  At right back, we're spoilt.  Flanagan had some poor games, but that's probably due to a lack of confidence that comes from a lack of a run in the team.  Martin Kelly’s potential is still untapped, and he looks an outstanding player for the future – so more rotation would be great. Glen Johnson is looking world-class – he just needs to stay fit!

Enrique was a good signing, but slumped in form, and didn’t get dropped.  That’s not a good sign of squad depth to create rotation, so left back is a key position to strengthen in the summer.  Although, as an alternative, Kelly (at RB) and Glen Johnson (at LB) combination has worked well on occasion. Either way, Enrique needs competition.  Ideally someone who can cross well, especially from deep (one of Enrique’s weaknesses) and pacey enough to handle super-fast counter attacks (as opposed to how Enrique handled Ramires in the FA Cup final).

For me, Robinson & Flanagan must be used in the cup competitions, or the Europa League - we must take advantage of these fixtures to really give the squad players a good go.

Centre Backs

Our first choice central defence pair is comparable to the best in the league - Kompany/Lescott, Terry/Ivanovic, Vidic/Ferdinand, Vermaelen/Koscielny, etc.  But it's clear that Agger has a massive influence over its effectiveness – Skrtel tends to play worse when he’s compensating for the misgivings of his defensive partner.  I also don't think Coates should be loaned out.  Alternatively, Liverpool need to bring in a solid and experienced centre back to rotate Skrtel & Agger, lest they too become complacent.  Agger is the key; not only is he an outstanding defender, but he leads by example as well, and his presence attacking corners tends to get us goals.

Carragher has been a fantastic servant to the club, and I don’t think anyone disputes his commitment.  But ultimately, some of his performances haven’t been great, and it may mean time to see him take up that coaching role we all suspect he would like one day. 

Of course, as mentioned before, all this assumes our 1^st choice partnership remains intact.  There’s a shortage of proven centre backs out there, and Skrtel in particular will not lack potential suitors.  If he does get sold, let’s hope it’s for the 8 figure sum we expect, and an equally outstanding defender gets purchased in our direction, one very comfortable on the ball as Agger often illustrates.

Central Midfield

This position is a big issue.  Against the midfields of Newcastle, Spurs, Arsenal (as examples), Liverpool lack the quality to take control of games, placing more reliance on the wide play, making them predictable.  If there is one thing that excites me about Rodgers, he should be able to teach the players here how to be more penetrative through the middle, which is something Liverpool lacked in many matches against more capable central midfield opposition. 

Rodgers’ immediate problem is the number of players in the squad who play in the middle – Gerrard, Shelvey, Henderson, Adam, Spearing, Lucas (as well as Cole and Aquilani when back from loan).  You'd think with so many, there was competition for spaces, but as an example, Hendo's extensive run in the team probably resulted from a lack of meaningful competition in most cases.  It also means that unless something unusual happens, we’re unlikely to see incoming transfers in this position.  The other irony is that only two of them – Lucas and Spearing – play that pivotal defensive midfield position.

Rodgers will do well to realise that Lucas is unlikely to be the same (at least immediately) after such a serious injury.  Liverpool cannot afford to force him to play every game like they were.  While Spearing is a good squad player with a great attitude, a third defensive midfielder is definitely needed, especially given the passing responsibilities Rodgers may impose on a player in this position.  It makes me hope rumours linking Liverpool to players like Seydou Keita are true.

After his injury in November 2011, Liverpool struggled to fill the boots of Lucas in midfield

The rest of the central midfielders need to be rotated based on performance.  I also would love to see more of Shelvey – his attacking instincts imply a great deal of talent.  For me, Hendo played too much and seems too intimidated in big matches where the pressure is on.  Adam is a challenge to manage, since he produced so many assists – but I’m a firm believer if you deliver that many corners without beating the first man, you deserve to be dropped.  Adam is a squad player – nothing more.

Were it up to me, Hendo, Shelvey and Spearing would form the basis of a trial midfield in League Cup and Europa League matches – that would give them experience, keep them match fit and more importantly, give them the responsibility to lift their game.

Then of course come the two wildcards returning from loan - Joe Cole and Aquilani.  I don’t believe Cole has much more to give, but I feel for Aquilani, who hasn’t really got the chance to prove his talent since being signed by Rafa as “Alonso’s replacement”.  Given the wage bill, I think it’s likely that both will be sold, but if one does stay – I really hope the Italian gets his chance to come back into the team.  His technical skills could be great foil for players like Suarez to exploit, and would possibly be quite suited to Rodgers’ approach.

Wingers & “Wide Forwards”

It’s on the flanks that Liverpool’s squad begins to show imbalances, although, we should take into account that Rodgers may not have need of traditional wingers, since his tactics generally rely on width from the fullbacks, or “wide forwards”.  Nonethless, assuming (on occasion) Liverpool need to apply a slightly more direct, counter-attacking style, the squad lacks the correct players.  We only have one “true” winger.  Maxi, Kuyt and Bellamy are all best employed as “wide forwards”, and with the exception of Bellamy, seem to lack the pace needed to run the wings like your traditional wings.  Maxi and Kuyt are likely to leave in any case, and given age and wages, should be sold.  I adore both players, especially Kuyt for his work-rate, but younger players are need with the technical skills matching that of a Suarez.  Bellamy’s experience would be a great element of balance in the squad.

It brings us back to Stewart Downing – enough has been said about him to bemoan his contribution (or lack thereof), so if Liverpool cut their losses and sold him at a cut price, that would be fine with me.  I don’t see him settling into the Rodgers’ style of play in any case.  I’d also love to see Sterling come into the team – and my suspicion is that depending on transfers, this could be likely.

In fact, Rodgers’ tactics may define the transfer priorities to a wide forward on the right (Suarez would be my choice on the left) with similar levels of technical skill to penetrate defences.

This for me would be the best way to really get the best out of most technically gifted player, who I had the privilege of seeing in the flesh in the infamous World Cup 2010 quarterfinal against Ghana here in South Africa.  I remember noticing something distinct in that match.  His movement off the ball, playing off Forlan was some of the best I’ve seen.  Suarez thrives best playing off other players on the pitch who attract defenders and create space – his career alongside Huntelaar at Ajax is also proof enough.  

Some of Suarez's best moves start out wide, cutting inside

Suarez is also, another player at most risk of leaving.  Rumours suggest Juventus, PSG and Real Madrid already amongst the admirers, and if Liverpool don’t bring in trophies, or Champions League football quickly, it may force the hand of our most talented player.

Forwards

That leaves the goalscoring department, which was much analysed over the past season, with the Opta faithful amongst us counting the woodwork, shots, corners and clear cut chances to death. 

Carroll may have ended the season well, but his shortcomings are exposed.  He’s not a clinical finisher by any stretch.  If we keep him, I see Andy as an expensive, but potentially useful squad player.  He needs competition, and a more natural goalscorer to learn from. Question is, do you buy another big man? Or a mobile, pacy goal-poacher?  There are arguments for both, though I prefer the latter, to offer tactical options and versatility.  This would be a major transfer priority for me as well.

It’s interesting, but the squad isn’t overtly lacking in talent or depth in most places.  One gets the impression that a couple of shrewd, potent signings are all that will be needed to turn Liverpool’s fortunes quite impressively.  Or the new boss could surprise us, and overhaul the squad completely.

The question then beckons – who to bring in? The speculation suggest Brendan Rodgers will receive £30 million plus any fees from player sales, so assuming that he sells the likes of Downing, Maxi, Kuyt, Cole and possibly Aquilani, we should hopefully be looking at a transfer kitty of £50 million. The targets will vary, and the speculation will be rife with many players that been linked / interesting thus far.  I won’t attempt to offer names – that would ruin the speculative fun of chasing various tweets on the subject.  Besides, there’s someone else more primed than me to solve that problem.

Mr Rodgers, welcome to Liverpool Football Club.  No pressure.

Mission Immediate – Crafting a Strategy for Liverpool FC

One of the best things about football as a sport is its incomparable ability to create drama. I would love to challenge Hollywood’s finest to try and script the fiction to beat the truth we’ve seen this season. Manchester City shifting from title losers to title winners in a matter of 60 seconds at their home ground in the final moments of their season. Chelsea’s “anti-football” tactics surpassing superior attacking sides like Benfica, Barcelona and Bayern Munich to culminate in their winning the Champions League. And Liverpool, 3 times winners over Chelsea this season in 2 competitions, parting ways with the man who led them to those wins.

Even more ironic. Had Liverpool finished 4^th as the target was set, it wouldn’t have been enough anyway. Chelsea’s victory ensures it. So 3^rd and above was the real target to qualify for the Champions League – meaning Liverpool had to be a team that, for 2 thirds of the season at least, was challenging for the title.

I’m not the first to lament the departure of our legendary manager – I won’t be the last. And while it can be a source of total drivel, Twitter was (is) an interesting place this past week with so many contrasting emotions in response to Kenny’s sacking. The brave few suggested it was bound to happen. Many others were outraged, some even going as far to write open letters directed to Ian Ayre, John Henry and other senior figures (what little are left) in the Anfield hierarchy.

And make no mistake, this is a defining moment for FSG. From the moment they took over, they seemed to do a lot of things Liverpool fans were happy with. They got rid of Hodgson. They replaced him with Kenny. They allowed extensive transfer spending. They engaged with fans. So far so good.

But now, the buffer is gone. FSG now face the results of some, as yet, potentially wise or rash decisions. And there is no romance of 2 cup finals, or a Scottish-born trophy magnet to mask them. They are exposed to that dangerous animal in all its varieties – the Liverpool fan (no offence meant by that statement, of course!).

So in other words – time to find out who our new owners really are.

For the record – I am sad to see Kenny go, but it’s clear that his romantic motivational skills during his caretaker spell just didn’t extend to his tactical application in the league this season. I don’t dispute the value of a trophy and 2 cup finals, and I’ll retain my ‘old school’ thinking that Liverpool is about winning trophies, but there are severe shortcomings at this club, and Kenny sadly may just not fit the profile of the man we need to change that. In any case, his contributions as a player, manager and humanitarian in the 80’s are stuff of legend, and Manchester United have him to thank for having such a stiff target against which to motivate themselves.

Nonetheless, the focus now shifts to FSG. Which is very compelling.

So as we stand now – we’ve had some drama. No director of football, communications (I have heard the tweets about Chang, but I’m unsure of the truthfulness), no manager. No stadium plan as well.

Dark days?  Perhaps. But perhaps not.

There’s a theory I have here, and it naturally assumes that FSG are the right owners, and that they are going to work prudently to take the club forward. Obviously if they aren’t, that’s another issue, never mind another blog!  But here’s the theory – Liverpool was in dire need to break some age old structures in order to build new ones from scratch.

Liverpool aren’t a club that are geared to succeed in modern football, because modern football is different now. Few want to hear it or believe it, but it’s the truth. My previous blog skirted the unthinkable idea that a FA Cup final defeat could be a blessing in disguise, and I think that is still true – because if Ian Ayre can suggest Kenny would have been sacked regardless of a cup win, imagine how much harder it would have been to accomplish had we earned another FA Cup in our cabinet.

We have to accept the dynamics of the game have changed. A Carling Cup victory and an FA Cup final are great, but clearly some of Liverpool's illustrious opponents in those competitions (City, United, Arsenal, etc) had priorities elsewhere.  The money is too important nowadays. In many ways, the departure of Torres is a perfect illustration of this. We can chirp all we want – his move was vindicated.  Within 18 months of leaving, he’s played in two consecutive Champions League semi-finals, won a final and won 2 more trophies than he did at Liverpool in all his time there. Money talks, and if you want to compete with the ‘plastic’ clubs, you have to at least meet them in the same playground.

It’s not impossible to do that either. If it was, then Manchester United, lacking their captain and best defender for most the season, and a far less talented squad, wouldn’t have equalled the rich half of their own City on points in the table, losing by mere goal difference.

It’s not just about Kenny's or Comolli’s departure. The closing events of the season highlight potential deficiencies in FSG’s initial strategy with their ‘moneyball’ thinking, not to mention some of Liverpool’s old school structures or lacking leadership (the mishandling of the racism issue comes to mind).

It ironically gives me comfort, because if FSG is thinking seriously about top level structure and making changes, then it implies that they care about addressing the top level structure for first time in ages. This should be important to Liverpool, because the clubs are no longer just about the football anymore – you cannot divorce the business from the stuff on the pitch.

All the recent successful clubs in Europe have some common threads in terms of “larger-than-life” managers who want as much control of everything as possible (Ferguson, Mourinho come to mind) or powerful demands driven at presidential level downwards (say what you want about Abramovich or Mansour, but there was a point to their spending – lavish or otherwise). It also involves (of course)… money!

There may not be an open top bus parade for 3^rd or 4^th place, but especially in a very competitive league like England, not being in the Champions League is a big deal. And for Liverpool, whose revenues (as an example) have only grown 99% between 2002/3 – 2010/11 (the European elite have grown in excess of 150% upwards), it’s an even bigger deal.

Suppose Ian Ayre’s recent interview is to be believed, and the top level structure changes and Comolli’s old responsibilities do split - it poses interesting opportunities for scouting, transfer negotiations, and the overall footballing philosophy of the club, something sorely lacking consistent direction over the past 20 years.

I, for one, want to give FSG the benefit of the doubt, simply because the philosophy of Liverpool is in dire need of redefinition. Many of us can quote Shankly and what he believed Liverpool should be about – but those philosophies haven’t been respected in the manner that Liverpool have wanted since the end of Kenny’s first spell as manager. So if FSG are thinking of changing things to drive results, and have illustrated a ruthlessness to do so because they are impatient for those results, then I’m certainly interested in what their plans are, because that makes them far more interested owners than we’ve had in a while.

That, of course, then leads to the speculation about the manager, and specifically who the next Liverpool boss will be.

Again, if Ian Ayre is to be believed, the desired idea for the future manager is to focus purely on the team, results, and only the final say on signings. This already rules out several managers who like to have wider control (think people like Wenger, Mourinho, etc).  Liverpool’s steady deterioration as a club suggests that only one of these types of managers would be a realistically obtainable one anyway (Rafael Benitez). So unless Rafa is happy to fit into FSG’s structures, he won’t be back. And it’s worth remembering that even the infamous tenure of Hicks and Gillett supplied Rafa with a fair stock of transfer funds that allowed him to buy the good (e.g Agger, Lucas, Reina, Torres, Mascherano, Alonso) and the expensive and unsuccessful (Babel, Morientes, Pennant, Sissoko, Dossena, Aquilani), to name a few. One doubts FSG giving Rafa the same licence to spend.

What do we want from a new manager?  More than the ability to attract the best players – because Liverpool’s current resources and lack of Champions League football limit that anyway – is the ability to get the best out of the players available, even if less talented. We need a strong motivator, a strong personality, but tactically astute, intelligent and above all – driven by results. Someone who knows the competitive nature of the Premier League and the culture of its football. And someone who knows the players on the continent well, or can at least engage with them – because it’s clear from our recent spending that any level of British based talent is likely to be overpriced. So some of our transfer targets should be non-British in most cases.

I don’t think it’s realistic to expect the likes of Guardiola, Capello or Klopp. I genuinely think Pep wants a break, Capello doesn’t appear to be the right culture fit, and Klopp has unfinished business at Dortmund.

That leaves the other rumoured candidates, like Andre Vilas Boas (AVB), Roberto Martinez, Didier Deschamps. If not permanently appointed by Chelsea, one wonders if even Roberto Di Matteo could be in the frame.

Given the task ahead, I would support the appointment of either AVB or Martinez, although I would lean to the latter, because of some concerns the peculiar manner in which AVB lost the Chelsea dressing room earlier this season.

Martinez may not have had the challenge of a big club yet, but what he brings potentially is tactical application and the ability to turn lower quality players into over-achievers. Not to mention the ability to adapt tactically as opposed to pushing the same plan A over and over again (see http://www.zonalmarking.net/2012/05/16/wigan-stay-up-after-a-switch-to-3-4-3 ).  Yes, he hasn’t had the chance at a big club – but as usual, you have to start somewhere, and maybe this is our unearthing “Alex Ferguson / Arsene Wenger / Jose Mourinho” moment. At least, that’s what I hope.

Whoever is appointed – whether the manager, scouting, or heading up the whole footballing side of things, one thing is clear. Changes are ahead. And given the severity of Liverpool’s expectations and the challenging place from which they commence this task, I would rather offer FSG a touch of sympathy. Sacking Dalglish may not have been popular – but their bravery could yet prove the right decision, and if it does, then we may look back on the events this week as a key turning point in the future success of the club.

Liverpool’s FA Cup final reflects on season 2011-12

A picture speaks a thousand words, as they say…

If John Henry is as serious about Liverpool being successful as we want him to be, he needs to be stark raving mad by now.

During yesterday’s match, I was in the middle of a conversation with a friend who asked what happened to the Liverpool that ended last season (2010-11).  You remember, the one admirably improved under the caretaking of Dalglish?  The one that played quick, snappy passes, most of them on the ground, with relentless accuracy and finesse, producing fine wins like the 5-2 demolition against Fulham?

I responded by suggesting the team was different – that team that ended the season well included a far more experienced and capable midfield of Maxi, Lucas and Meireles.  Strange that.

No question – the absence of Lucas is significant.  It surprises me all the more that Liverpool managed to produce the performances they did in the Carling Cup against Manchester City, the FA Cup against Manchester United, and that league game against Arsenal, without him. His impact to this team can be likened to the manner in which Yaya Toure has become the rock upon which City’s title challenge has been constructed.  Rather stupid then, that Liverpool didn’t recruit adequately to cover for him, especially in the January transfer window.

Yet experience was on the bench – especially Maxi, who was integral in the victories over Chelsea earlier in the season.  Liverpool instead chose to ignore this.

In my opinion, Spearing and Henderson were out of their depth yesterday. Yes, Henderson showed attacking shades towards the end, but by then, Liverpool had been galvanised by Carroll’s energy and it’s clear that belief is not going to be inspired by Henderson, much less Spearing.

I’m not keen to crucify either player though.  Liverpool have been crying out for academy talent to come through, and I think Spearing is a capable squad player, who in other lesser important fixtures, can shine in his own way. Henderson is a victim of a transfer fee he didn’t choose, and being played beyond his years.  They will learn and develop – but they shouldn’t be doing so at the cost of a cup final. And both certainly put up a major effort.

I also don’t excuse the ineffectiveness of some of the experienced players, like Gerrard, who has been inconsistent, and Reina, who seems to have forgotten how to make those magnificent saves he is known for. Enrique has also become very inconsistent, making me think a fullback combination of Kelly and Johnson may have been better.

But if Liverpool was poorly prepared and configured on the pitch, blame starts and ends where the entire season should – with the manager, Kenny Dalglish.

My previous blog should clarify (and I re-iterate) that my feelings on Kenny are ones of deep respect and gratitude for the club.  I wasn’t even born yet when Kenny was delivering trophies as a player for the club, but his efforts for the 96 alone justify enough for me to say he has deserved another shot at the job. And there is no doubt his influence made a difference in the latter half of last season.

But this season, mistakes have been made aplenty, and sadly he may well pay for it with his job, especially if FSG illustrates the ruthlessness they did with Comolli and other staff last month.

Yesterday’s tactics were inept. Playing Luis Suarez as a lone striker with ambitious through balls (high or low) may work to catch defences like those of Norwich off guard, and produce some great results, but they won’t work against a side in form that managed to survive 3 hours against the side who plays the finest football on the planet.  If Lionel Messi can be kept quiet, with the quality service he’s used to delivering, you can bet that Suarez will be even less effective while chasing high balls against Ivanovic and Terry who are better equipped to deal with nonsense passes like that anyway.

I too expected much more of the players yesterday.  And for some strange reason, Liverpool only seemed to register after the 2^nd goal that “Hey!  We’re in a final!  Shouldn’t we play a little better than this?!?” The team started far too slowly, and build-up play felt at times like revving an engine with the handbrake applied.  But that was as much tactical as it was motivational.

Carroll should have started – simple as that. I’ve seen many times that Andy’s presence takes defenders off Suarez, allowing the Uruguayan to work his magic, and that is enough to justify his inclusion. Add Andy’s endearing display of energy and blatant passion to get Liverpool back in the game as the cherry on top that would have won him many admirers (a pity, because despite that, I still think Liverpool need another #9 – one that at least produces the goals to match the effort).

Perhaps Andy wasn’t needed against Norwich, but he was definitely needed against Chelsea, 55 minutes earlier than his eventual entry in the game, especially if Suarez was going to play so high up the pitch.  So tactically, again – incorrect.

The warning signs were there surely. It was a cup final, against a form side that has lost twice under their caretaker manager. It took a superior side in Manchester City, and two wonder strikes from Papiss Cisse to give Di Matteo his only 2 defeats as Chelsea boss.  Outside of that, they are difficult to beat.  Chelsea is back to the direct, counter-attacking football that won them titles in the past century.  It ironically reminds of the brief Hiddink “era” (ironically, also as caretaker) where an over-confident Liverpool got caught by pacy counter attacks time and time again in a thrilling, but frustrating Champions League quarterfinal tie in 2009. Liverpool did the league double over Scolari’s Chelsea that season. Historical tactical lessons not observed or remembered...

The line-up was wrong. If you’re going to isolate a front man, start with Carroll. Don’t have 2 inexperienced midfielders trying to work the ball off Mikel, Lampard and Mata. Don’t leave sluggish defenders too far up the pitch, or at least keep a couple of defenders in deep lying positions to pick up the breaks. That inexperience and tactical ineptitude cost Liverpool. By the time Carroll’s entry increased the tempo, Chelsea was exactly where it wanted to be – re-enacting its performances against the Spanish giants, albeit less convincingly, defending a 2 goal lead.

Of course, there will be arguments about the disallowed goal – but while I wish desperately that controversy had avoided rearing its head in this game (especially after the dodgy call for Chelsea’s 2^nd goal in their semi-final), to be honest, it was immaterial.  Chelsea was far and away the better team for the first 60 minutes.  For Liverpool to only wake up by then and realise they were playing a cup final against a serious team in the last half an hour, was far too late to make any difference.

So the question now finally comes – what next?  How do Liverpool, players, staff and fans alike, move from this?

That’s where I wonder if yesterday’s defeat does not hold a blessing in disguise, to impart some much needed urgency upon the club.  I have to think that the emotions of a victory would have been quite dangerous, if not distracting from problems that must be solved.

The pre-match discussions put into context the debates about the desired yardstick for Liverpool’s season. Is it league position? Is it trophies? Is it Champions League qualification? Is it all three?

I maintain – Liverpool is about trophies – that’s why ultimately yesterday hurts a little more because it was a rich opportunity lost to continue the winning tradition.

But I also believe that that shouldn’t be used to paper over the cracks. Had we won, would the club still consider how they were to drive a potentially significant summer? I for one, sincerely hope that the club leverages this disappointment to do exactly that – but it seemed the messages from the players and Dalglish differed slightly from the big picture. 2 trophies would have been a success, but that wouldn’t have defined the season as successful. Progressive, but not successful.

Trophies are important, they always will be, but Liverpool has to be a club that challenges on ALL fronts.  And if key financial issues linked to the stadium are foreseen to be likely to exist for a few years, then it means Liverpool have to learn from clubs like Newcastle and punch well above their weight class (that’s not to be disrespectful to Newcastle, but I’m sure most Geordies wouldn’t have expected Champions League qualification this season, and that is still a possibility).

A victory would have played into the pre-match propaganda that the league campaign was merely extended periods of bad luck - a false perception that offers nothing but barriers to progress.

Arsenal improved their squad dramatically after that 8-2 defeat to Manchester United. No trophies – but they’re close to achieving their targets, and impressively so.  If the Red Devils end the season trophyless (which in itself in unheard of), there surely will be a response to improve the squad far beyond recalling old retired players.  Wake up calls. Liverpool has to respond in kind, simple as that.

Season 2011-12 has been a disappointment then.  Yes, a trophy in the bag, but if Dalglish does keep his job, hopefully he recognises a few things. Liverpool’s squad still lacks depth in certain positions (defensive midfield, attacking midfield – for the latter, read Aquilani, hopefully).  Serious competition is needed in goal, at left back, centre back, and central midfield.  World class talent is need on the flanks and up front (only Suarez meets this requirement – no-one else).

Dalglish also needs to recognise that tactically, the team needs to improve significantly.  Not only when to apply certain lineups / tactics, as the FA Cup final illustrated, but to address the problems over the course of the season.  30+ shots against the woodwork isn’t unlucky. It’s poor finishing, poor training or ineffective chance-creation.  Not to mention a shocker of a conversion rate, and far too few goals from set-pieces (and we get plenty of those!).

Perhaps then, this is a defeat to offer important reflection.  I doubt we would have reflected as we need to, had we won.  The poor league campaign would have been dismissed by 2 trophies, but Liverpool’s squad quality and display of tactical ineptitude and application throughout the season, needs to be addressed. If John Henry is the kind of owner we want him to be, then the manager – Dalglish or otherwise – has some serious work to do.

Kenny, his players, disloyal fans, and being consistently 'unlucky'

I recall the evening of the 28^th August 2011, and the end of a rather challenging week for Arsene Wenger.  Following acrimonious departures of Samir Nasri and Cesc Fabregas, an injury ridden team low on confidence were beaten 8-2 by a rampant Manchester United. The response from some Arsenal fans was immediate – “sack Wenger!” “Wenger’s lost it!” “His stubbornness with transfers has cost us!” They were 17^th in the table at the end of that day.

Fast forward to 24^th March 2012 – 7 wins in a row, and a team strengthened somewhat at the last minute by deals for several good players on deadline day, culminating in yet another win over Villa to consolidate a healthy lead for 3^rd place in the table. The response? No comments to suggest Wenger was past it, or that the heavy defeat in August had finally forced his spending hand. No – instead, plaudits were abundant for the Frenchman. Strange - Wenger, while an excellent manager, is still stubborn, and make no mistake, it is too coincidental that his transfer activity picked up not long after the Old Trafford turf finished clearing his senses.

I bring this up because many Liverpool fans are being blamed for displaying the same fickle nature on a weekly basis (predominantly because the results seem to flow to each extreme 7 days at a time)!  Most of this centres around the sense that Kenny Dalglish is not to be criticised.

So let me qualify upfront – I adore Kenny. I’ll always credit him with assisting the club from a very bad low last season.  That was far worse than current times, no matter how much lower we sink in the table.  There were substantial doubts over Liverpool’s future competitiveness as a club, and he did much to restore pride and identity back to this team. Not to mention his actions as a player, and a manager the first time round. And more than his footballing contributions; just his actions to assist the 96 are worth indefinite respect and admiration, far more than we can provide.

But we always come back to the football. And as far as his current management, I can’t help but judge Kenny by the same simple yardstick that I judge Evans, Houllier, Rafa and Roy, in my life as a Liverpool fan - results. To give you an example, my position on Rafa has always been controversial in that while I certainly consider him an excellent tactical thinker, his teams did not bring in all the results we wanted. You can judge it was not his fault and blame resources (or lack thereof) available, but 4 trophies in 6 years with the best assembled Liverpool teams of the past 20 years (arguably) just wasn’t enough in my opinion. Ironically, Kenny is 1 cup final away from achieving half of Rafa’s trophy tally in just 18 months in the job.

It’s clear from Liverpool’s own version of “the Apprentice” a couple of weeks back (at least, as far as we know) that there are some interesting opinions as it relates to Kenny within the echelons of the club itself.

With the sacking of Comolli – and it looks very much like he was sacked, to a large extent – come varying theories about the reasons. The most common ones suggest Comolli was blamed for Liverpool’s recent spending spree, and specifically its rather unspectacular end result - poor performing players, contributing to a poor league performance.

I personally think that Comolli was likely told to favour British based signings over foreign ones. Perhaps his choice of British players was poor (although Liverpool did enter the race for Ashley Young and Phil Jones) and he also did some poor negotiating in terms of prices.

Yet, Kenny was quick to suggest in the media that the under-performing signings were his decision, not Comolli’s. So, rather ironic that it was Kenny who received the vote of confidence. If Kenny was responsible, then Comolli’s sacking still doesn’t vindicate Kenny. The players we signed aren’t good enough, that’s why the team is underperforming.  Or, as Kenny is pained to repeat (and duly did so after our defeat to West Brom), we’ve just been unlucky quite a few times.

Except 30 shots against the woodwork isn’t unlucky – a couple, yes, but not 30. To score only 40 goals in 34 matches is not unlucky either. Maybe your players are poor at shooting. Maybe you need a finishing coach. Maybe you need to change tactics to create easier-to-finish chances. Maybe all three.

In football, to be a success – you should be making your own luck.

Many are blaming the players for the slump, particularly the new signings. But is it really all their fault? 9 new players – Suarez being arguably our most technically gifted and clearly someone we need to retain. Coates and Doni barely play. Bellamy and Enrique have been largely good.

Charlie Adam wasn’t that overpriced, and has contributed several assists.  He hasn’t been overly effective – but he was played incorrectly in defensive midfield several times this season. Surely Kenny could have recognised he’s a square peg in a round hole? And why was he allowed to take so many set-pieces when his delivery was consistently poor? If he was ineffective – then he should have been dropped a couple of times. At least, that’s how it should work.

Same for Henderson, who has also been played out of position several times (especially on the wing) and while he was overpriced, has shown flashes of being a good player – but a squad player at best.

Whoever chose to scout Downing and pay so much for a winger who can’t beat his marker chose the wrong player – simple as that. If he’s not effective – he shouldn’t be playing either.

I don’t understand how we have spent a season nursing the confidence of Carroll, our overpriced #9, who I feel sympathy for since he didn’t choose his transfer fee. Instead, I would like to ask why we didn’t spend it on a proven #9 who can link up well with Suarez. Are we to believe that even Liverpool outside of Europe can’t find someone with less than a £35 million price tag who can already score the goals we need? The goalscorers are out there – buying the “latest English sensation” at the time was lazy. And Liverpool need one - badly.

We can blame the existing players as well, but Johnson, Kelly, Skrtel, Lucas, Maxi and Agger have played well – and in Maxi’s case, far too little. Reina, Kuyt, Gerrard, Spearing, and Carra haven’t been consistent – but only Reina and Spearing play often as it is. Gerrard is a shadow of his former self. Spearing may not be everyone’s favourite – but considering he’s had to “replace” Lucas, I think he’s played beyond himself.

While we're talking about Lucas - I also don’t want to undermine the his importance! If he was still fit, he would be our best player this season – and his presence in breaking up opposing attacking playmakers gives the rest of his teammates huge confidence to go forward.

Let’s also not forget the players who departed recently. Many were players that just aren’t the Liverpool standard.  But I am a loss to explain why Meireles, Aquilani, and to a lesser extent Joe Cole (all better than some of our signings) have been allowed to go – especially given all three have far more technical skills than most of the current crop. I for one would love to see Aquilani back – but I’m expecting him to be sold – a great pity.

Comolli claimed early into the season that the squad was complete – whether that was his feeling, or Kenny’s, or both – it was wrong. Clearly the signings weren’t enough, the departures were incorrect, and the existing team hasn’t been well managed tactically.

Is it really about players, though? Is it really about them not trying hard enough? Or do we need more matches where there have been dominant statistics in possession and shots (especially off target) to suggest they don’t care enough? There are very few fixtures that come to mind where their application was lacking – Spurs (0-4), Bolton(1-3), Sunderland (0-1)... not much more than that. Then I think of Manchester City (1-1), Arsenal (1-2), West Brom (0-1)... where this slightly above average squad worked very hard to little reward in those matches.

I’d say the current squad depth is better than it was under Benitez.  We have more options in certain positions, absolutely.  But our first choice team (bar our back 4) doesn’t hold up with any of the teams in the top 6. (Before someone suggests that we have a better first choice XI than Newcastle, go check the table – results don’t lie very well).

If the players aren’t good enough, or aren’t configured on the field correctly – both those elements lie squarely with the manager.

I think the tactical discussion is relevant for this.  I don’t buy the argument that Kenny is out of touch with the modern game – the team wouldn’t dominate possession the way it does in most matches if he didn’t understand some of the principles needed to compete. We also have a very good defensive unit, which often only concedes goals due to being forced out of position for attacking impetus, not because of a lack of defensive ability.

And Kenny has masterminded some outstanding tactical victories – the back to back wins against Chelsea in November and the Carling Cup semi-final win over Manchester City (both legs) come to mind as the recent demonstrations of that.

The table below illustrates Liverpool’s league record to date (midtable = Everton down to Stoke, relegation zone – Aston Villa down to Wolves):

Liverpool has taken 64% of available points in the relegation zone. 3 of their defeats have come here, but 2 of them by one goal. The 3 draws were down to our “bad luck”. 6 wins arguably come from Liverpool’s superior players – or some very poor opponents. Only once did Liverpool fail to score, away at Wigan.

Against midtable sides, Liverpool have secured a mere 36% of available points. Here is where Liverpool’s goalscoring issues are most evident. Their 4 defeats were all by 1 goal – and arguably only the Sunderland and Fulham games were deserved defeats where the opposition where demonstrably better (although at Fulham, we were down to 10 men for much of the game). Teams in midtable have generally displayed a determination to play for the point against Liverpool – and succeeded. So this is another case where the points dropped are down to “bad luck” – as opposed to our inability to create easy-to-convert chances when opposition “park the bus”. Liverpool failed to score in 6 fixtures here – 3 of them at Anfield.

Against the top 6, the record is weak. Not exactly supportive of the idea that the team needs “big matches” to perform.

But in cup matches, all this turns on its head.

One can argue there’s no point in parking the bus in a cup game unless you defend a lead. Liverpool did that admirably against Manchester City in the Carling Cup semifinal.  I think Liverpool’s form in the cups comes down to opposition being more adventurous – leading to gaps in defences – and Liverpool’s natural style of play creates great counterattacking chances in matches like these, but not when teams park the bus. Few teams play cup games to avoid / minimise defeat – but in the league, that is certainly a viable objective.  So we shouldn’t be surprised by West Brom putting 7 defenders in the 6 yard box. Liverpool, like the teams above them in the table, need to figure out ways of beating them.

True – the top 6 don’t play so negatively against Liverpool – but they are the top 6 for a reason – they have great players (most of them), so their quality invariably gets past an weaker Liverpool side. I’d argue only the home matches against Manchester City and Arsenal were “lucky” results for the visitors.

What’s the point? Tactics. Manchester United have made a point of learning how to get points against midtable and relegation threatened teams that park the bus.  It’s not just about the right players – it’s also about tactical application.

There are some easy places to start – Liverpool, in 34 league matches, have been the dominant team in possession in 24+ of those matches.  They’ve also attempted over 500 shots, hitting the target with far too few of those. They’ve attempted over 500 crosses. They’ve also received a massive stack of corners – the most in the league I’m sure – yet their goals from this source isn’t in double figures. All these statistics indicate a clear ability and consistency to take games to the opposition – but we’re not creating the right kinds of chances, nor do we have the right finishers. So ultimately, that’s why I think it becomes a case of looking at tactics as well as players. If the players we signed can’t execute the chosen tactics properly – then I would prefer Kenny to stop calling it luck – and call it what it really is – poor.

I’ll give Kenny the benefit of the doubt to an extent though – and time, because I do think we need to be prudent. Assuming FSG don’t have grand plans about the hierarchy in the summer (in terms of moving / removing Kenny), I think he wants that opportunity to finish what he started way back in the late 1980’s. We cannot underestimate how low the club was (and still could be) when he took over. I certainly don’t suspect people at the club are feeling comfortable after the dismissal of staff the other week, so we cannot be too presumptuous about the mood at the club.

And then of course we have the major positives. As much as people want to diminish our Carling Cup victory and our place in the FA Cup final, I see it as meaningful progress for Liverpool. The purpose of Liverpool Football Club is to win trophies. I do appreciate the importance of the Champions League (I wrote a blog some weeks back all about the money!). But I’m sure Spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle – whoever finishes 3^rd and 4^th – will be very slow to order that open-top bus to celebrate qualifying. We’ve not qualified, and it is a pity, but I think the currency of the club is trophies, and for a while, we didn’t even get close to competing for silver on more than one front at most. 

If Kenny is introspective, and admits to himself that he’s made a few bad decisions, there is hope.  Even if we don’t win the FA Cup, I think it’s quite likely that Kenny will stay for at least one more year.

And if he does – let’s hope his tactics improve, his signings are better, and his players improve their quality on the pitch.

If not – let’s wish FSG courage, because removing Kenny from his post will be difficult for Liverpool fans to accept. And let’s hope if that is the case – that someone outstanding comes in.

The Importance of a New Stadium for Liverpool

Sobering times for Liverpool fans – a season ago, we were celebrating how Kenny Dalglish, with the mantle of Messiah, seemed to effortlessly restore us back to form, after Woy’s charges suffered 5 defeats in the last 8 league matches. But before you bring out the white robe and sandals for the King, even after the victory at Ewood Park this week, Liverpool’s run of 6 defeats in 9 is comparable to Hodgson’s record, which means for 2 seasons in a row, we’ve been talking – sacrilegiously – about the infamous 1954 season, the last time Liverpool were relegated (and 1 of only 3 occasions it has happened).

I myself am perplexed – and stubbornly trying to believe in Kenny and his squad, but I’m sure I’m not the first Liverpool fan who’s questioned the Anfield legend this season. There is a touch of irony about this – after all, it was Liverpool fans that (vehemently) made it clear they would have preferred Kenny to Woy a season ago from the start. Liverpool fans have got what they wanted… or so we thought, right? FSG were merely responding to the yearnings of fans that place their trust in the last man to take us to the promised land of 1^st place.

But perhaps FSG, in retrospect, showed naiveté – and this is not the only decision that I feel they’re lacking direction on.  Another sobering thought. It’s 18 MONTHS since October 2010, when FSG completed “the epic swindle” and purchased Liverpool Football Club from Hicks and Gillett. I emphasise the timeline, because it’s a long time to own a club and not outwardly deal with the elephant in its room.

I am, of course, talking about a new stadium. Anfield. Stanley Park. All three.

Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate the logistical issues that may exist, from relevant council or local government approvals, complex deals to arrange building contractors, and all sorts of related things I know little about. To be honest, I’m sure most Liverpool fans will share my attitude that these issues, while important – pale in comparison to the significance of the delay, or lack of action.

Here’s the facts I care about:

A quick glance at Liverpool’s total revenues (check the Deloitte Money League reports for sources) illustrate a bleak picture. Liverpool’s ability to generate footballing revenue – whether fairly compared or not to clubs with large sources of readily available cash (wearing blue, mostly) – are dwarfed dramatically by England’s elite (and yes, I don’t like to describe Manchester United that way).  The graph above compared against other European powerhouses like Barcelona and Real Madrid makes for a worse image.

Why is this important? Simple. Footballing revenue ultimately empowers a club to purchase, employ, retain, reward (etc) its most critical asset – players. And in revenue terms, Liverpool doesn’t stack up well at all.  What is revealing about the graph above is not only where Liverpool ranks, it’s also the extensive growth of Manchester United, the growth of Spurs and City, and the plateau of Arsenal and Chelsea. Only Liverpool is heading in the wrong direction.

Clubs have 3 core sources of revenue – matchday (good old bums on seats), broadcasting (TV coverage – and typically, the more matches, and the more significant the matches, the more money), and lastly commercial (everything from shirt sales to sponsorship deals). 

So let’s consider a comparison – Liverpool to their original traditional rivals Arsenal and Manchester United (an appropriate comparison I feel, in the context that while Chelsea and Manchester City possess financial strength as well, much of it comes from some very wealthy owners who can afford to make extensive injections to progress those clubs very quickly in a short time - and let’s be honest, Hicks & Gillett were, and to a lesser extent, FSG, are not those types of owners).

Have a look at the next couple of graphs, comparing total, commercial, matchday and broadcasting revenues for the old “Big Three”:

I draw a few conclusions. A current gap of nearly £150 million in available financial muscle between us and our largest rivals isn’t going to help us beat them on the pitch in trophy counts.  The gap speaks to – for example – the ability to attract quality players.  Liverpool lost out in signing Phil Jones and Ashley Young (as examples) in the summer.  It could have been about Champions League football, or wages, or both.

Both Liverpool and Manchester United have doubled (just about) their commercial revenue between 2005-2011.  Liverpool’s recent sponsorship deals with Standard Chartered (£20 million per year) and Warrior Sports (£25 million per year) are comparable to Manchester United’s deals with Aon (£20 million per year) and Nike (£23 million per year).

It’s when you start looking at matchday revenue, and consequently broadcasting revenue, that Liverpool’s finances show critical cracks.  In 2006/07, Arsenal moved to the Emirates and 22,000 extra seats effectively permanently doubled their matchday revenue (check the table below for seating capacities in England).  2012/13 will be Manchester United’s 5^th year of enjoying £100 million from their stadium alone.  Liverpool’s matchday revenue has yet to break the £50 million mark in its recent history.  So while Anfield may be a special place – it’s going to take a great deal more singers in the Kop to bring the money that would be music to the club’s ears.

The interesting one is broadcasting revenue - ultimately driven by performance on the pitch to some extent.  English clubs don’t negotiate their own TV revenue deals (unlike Spain, for example), so Liverpool’s “big club” reputation (they haven’t performed like it) counts little in negotiating Premier League money. The major issue here is the consistent early exits in domestic cup competitions and the sabbatical from the Champions League.  Consider the performance of these clubs in their domestic and European competitions:

The results speak for themselves; Manchester United have displayed an uncanny consistency of getting into the final 4 in most competitions in recent years.  Arsenal seems to be a perennial quarterfinalist, while Liverpool is less consistent.  If you compare these performances to the broadcasting revenue, there are a couple of interesting observations. The broadcasting revenue gap between Liverpool and Arsenal is negligible, until 2011 – the first full season without the Champions League. Manchester United and Arsenal only failed to reach at least the quarter-finals across all 3 competitions on 17 occasions (combined) – Liverpool have failed to do so 14 times in the same period.

You also need to consider how this impacts matchday revenues as well, because of matches played at home in these competitions.  The Champions League especially, with its two-legged format, offers a double whammy of revenue, because a home game is always involved.

So it tells us something we already know – even though this season’s domestic cup success will (ironically) minimise the gap in Champions League TV revenue loss, it won’t be made up by much. Matchday revenues will also be undermined by our smaller stadium – although bizarrely, we played 1 home game in our Carling Cup run, and 4 home games in our FA Cup run.

Tellingly - Arsenal may have fewer trophies in the cabinet, but they have the right idea about the importance of the top 4. Manchester United’s broadcasting revenue this season will collapse dramatically due to early exists across the board (but they’ve had a decade to build up some fat to absorb this).

In fact, Manchester United’s performance, stadium size and commercial revenues across all fronts have configured the club’s revenues well enough to compete financially even if certain teams in blue do have access to other, “slicker”, sources. Clearly they’ve won the trophies anyway.

So conclusion time.  It’s a simple equation: bigger stadium = more money. More money = better players. Better players = better performance.  Better performance = more money.  More money = better players. And so on!

But it all starts with a stadium.

Which brings us to FSG again. 18 MONTHS. Given the reasons above – is it reasonable to expect that a year and a half has passed since they took ownership with no progress on the stadium issue? Have we all been taken in by the tepid romance of Kenny’s reign that we’ve failed to notice the huge problem that Anfield currently represents? What is FSG’s plan and intention? If they haven’t done anything yet – when will they do something? If this isn’t a priority, why isn’t it?

Because it stands to reason that I certainly don’t expect more £100 million transfer kitties for Kenny to spend. If the “traitors” amongst us are to be believed and we need to oust Kenny in favour of managers of Mourinho or Guardiola’s calibre, I ask you – do they not spend money with their clubs? With our goalscoring problem, wouldn’t it be nice to go after bench warmers like Dzeko or Defoe, or loaned superstars like Adebayor? I doubt we can afford them, let alone go after better.

Again – this is a long term road back to the top – and it starts with a stadium. Anfield. Stanley Park. Whatever it may be.

It begs the question – Hicks & Gillett didn’t give Rafa the full transfer kitty he wanted – but he got to spend money, no question.  FSG have done the same.

Do we have another set of overpromising owners?

John Henry.  Your move...

Sure, it's the Carling Cup... But is it progress...?

SURE, IT’S THE CARLING CUP … BUT IS IT PROGRESS…?

Celebrating the Carling Cup trophy after 6 years without a trophy?  Isn’t that like being single for 6 years and winning a date with Susan Boyle?

Not sure.  In any case, doesn’t Susan Boyle have a fair bit of money by now?  Regardless of her dating prospects – maybe she can buy us some additional players?

Enough sarcasm – I, for one, am ecstatic that Liverpool finally managed to get the 6 year old monkey off their back.  I’ll leave the Susan Boyle metaphor to the person who wrote that tweet in the first place. 

Of course, there was banter directed at Liverpool fans who dared to celebrate this occasion.  One Manchester United fan on my Twitter timeline pointed out that they won the same cup recently with a second string side – relatively true for 2010, not so true for 2009 (at least that’s what I wanted to say!).

What was interesting, though, was some Liverpool fans celebrating relatively passively, indicating a concern that despite this achievement, the league position of 7^th still suggested a lack of progress in the team from recent years.

So the question is – has the team progressed?

I argue yes – not extensively – but yes.  Is that because of Liverpool progressing too slowly, or the competition progressing faster?

A bit of both, I’d say.

Consider that, while many may be critical of the signings we made in the summer, especially Henderson, Downing and Adam, less must be made of their price tag and more must be made of the necessity Liverpool face in building a squad that can compete on all fronts.  Depth is key to winning titles, including (and especially) the league.

Our Carling Cup run is a prime example.  It reflects positively that Liverpool, in the process of navigating 7 matches to lifting the trophy, ended up using most of the current squad in reaching the last hurdle.  We used 1^st and 2^nd choice lineups throughout the competition, allowing a fair extent of our full squad to contribute.  And some of them really used the opportunity to shine.

When we lost Lucas against Chelsea, it created the opportunity for Jay Spearing to make an impact in the semi against Man City.  His brief performance (cut short by injury) in the first leg of that semi was critical to the attacking spell that defined our chances to win the semi – his covering of the dangerous Man City attacking midfield was excellent enough to allow Gerrard to spend most of that time in Man City’s final third.  His impact was missed in the league defeat to Bolton.

It’s one example, but it’s that kind of depth Liverpool have lacked in recent years.  We may not like comparisons to Man United, but they are appropriate given that is the team we need to overhaul, eventually.  I’ve collated the core squads of the two clubs for the past few years in the tables below – have a look at the squads over time – paying attention to depth, number of players, quality, and players who can be used in multiple positions.

Table 1 – Liverpool squads 2006-current

Table 2 – Manchester United 2006-current

When we ran the Red Devils close by 4 points in 2008-09 to the league title, our strikeforce was Torres, poorly supported by Kuyt, Babel, Keane, Ngog and El Zhar (not in effort, just in actual goalscoring output) – especially when compared to Tevez, Ronaldo, Rooney and Berbatov.  That title was lost because of a lack of goals in games we dominated, but drew – 2 goalless draws against Stoke City spring to mind – we still haven’t learn that lesson in the current season clearly.  And not just in that position - Henderson and Adam haven’t been altogether good at filling that role in Lucas or Spearing’s absence either. 

In fact, while the 2008-09 season may have been perceived as a better year for Liverpool compared to previous ones, when you consider Man United that  year won the Carling Cup, and were Champions League finalists and FA Cup semifinalists, finishing 2^nd , getting knocked out relatively early in the cups and beating them 4-1 at Old Trafford doesn’t seem all that impressive.

Squad quality and depth is not something Man United have suffered from down the years – if Rooney isn’t playing, there are still goals in Berbatov, Welbeck and Hernandez.  Creativity on the flanks comes from Nani, or Young, or Valencia, or even Ryan Giggs.  Defensive midfield has many options in Carrick, Anderson, or Fletcher. 

That’s not to say we aren’t improving, though.  In attacking midfield, if Downing plays poorly, Bellamy, Kuyt, Shelvey, Henderson and Maxi are all accessible and worthy replacements (and vice versa!).  Central midfield cover exists in the form of Gerrard, Henderson, Adam and Shelvey.  In defence, Johnson can cover for Enrique, and Kelly can cover for Johnson, with minimal concern of the quality of player replacing the other.  Carragher and Coates provide solid cover for Skrtel and Agger.  So we are slowly finding the formula.

Ultimately, Liverpool should be a team that competes and wins every tournament it plays in.  I’m too cynical to think of the Carling Cup as a springboard as others have described it, but for those who lifted silverware for the first time on the 26^th February 2012, I imagine it’s good for them to know what winning a trophy feels like – they need to get used to the pressure of a final – many more need to follow.

Down the years, Man United have always been flush in having 6-7 players in defence, midfield or attack of the same or similar quality.  Particularly since the departure of Alonso, Liverpool allowed the team to be too reliant on Gerrard and Torres – but the current squad doesn’t have the problem to the same extent.  I’m not going to say it’s ideal to have Lucas missing, but we did have navigated 3 Carling Cup and 3 FA Cup matches successfully without him.  Suarez hasn’t really scored many goals, so while he is a talented player, his absence in January was managed well – and let’s not forget that we only had Steven Gerrard back properly from late December.

Winning the Carling Cup has many other side advantages – even if we don’t finish 4^th, if we’re serious about the Champions League, the squad needs to get used to playing twice, three times a week.  I certainly doubt we’d go to the Champions League wanting to make up the numbers, but the current squad is still lacking to survive the rigours of European football in addition to domestic commitments.  The Europa League ironically could be a decent stepping stone for that process.

That’s why I think progress has been made – even though Spurs, Man United and Man City are well beyond catching in the current league table, Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle are not – meaning that even with our inexperienced, slightly above average squad, we’re keeping pace with some teams that command greater depth than us.  And fair enough, maybe compared to previous years, a midfield of Alonso, Mascherano, Gerrard, Riera and Benayoun is stronger than Henderson, Adam, Downing, Gerrard, Maxi, Lucas, Shelvey and Spearing – but with a couple of transfers, and some continuity – that midfield could be a key characteristic of a deep and strong Liverpool squad.

It will also be key to continue to involve the full extent of the squad in as many league matches as possible.  One of the things other sides do better than we do is rotate – to illustrate my case, we know our back 4 of Johnson, Skrtel, Agger and Enrique are outstanding – but do we have the same confidence in Kelly, Coates, Carragher and Flanagan?  Each of them has merit as good defenders, but they just haven’t played enough, which affects how well they will assimilate into the team when called upon.

So – lack of continuity and a couple of transfers aside – and in spite of strengthened competition (Manchester City and Tottenham in particular) – Liverpool have progressed reasonably well, and the team’s potential of 4^th place and 2 trophies illustrates that (after all, the last couple of years haven’t seen anywhere near that much).  But with other teams setting a heavy pace, Liverpool will be pressed to push on and grow their squad in both depth and talent.  We have a much better core and enough depth that the over-reliance on one or two players has decreased.  But the squad is still lean, and still needs a couple more injections of serious quality.  Hopefully Kenny Dalglish and Damien Comolli agree…